Richard Fain, chairman and CEO, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. officially takes ownership of Oasis of the Seas .

The hype has been enormous — seminars touting the retractable roofs, interior balconies, ziplining, aqua theater, an elevator bar and a promenade that features real grass the employees have to mow. Heck, they’ve even signed Rihanna to provide entertainment in December. But despite the webinars, CLIA classes, brochures and emails telling the travel industry between the lines that Royal Caribbean’s Oasis of the Seas will invigorate profits, it’s now looking like … well, hype.

Even the world’s largest ship can’t overcome the plummet in discretionary income to persuade folks to book sooner than a few weeks out in this fourth quarter. Travel agents are telling Cruise Week that at the end of October, there’s still plenty of vacancy on Oasis for Christmas and New Years sailings, even though the $1.5 billion vessel is the most talked about new cruise ship to come along in years, the publication points out. This includes everything from the inside Category Q spaces to balcony categories, although the suites at the top of the pricing chain are sold out.

It’s the same story for the first quarter of 2010, too: suites sell, while agents paddle to get vacationers to commit to the rest of the ship. That 40 percent additional space to entertain as many as 6,360 passengers per sailing may turn into 40 percent more booking headaches as the recession continues.

And since Oasis also carries another accolade — world’s most expensive cruise ship — slow bookings can’t be too welcome within the accounting department at Royal Caribbean, particularly with sister ship Allure of the Seas hot on its heels in the shipyards.  Oasis is scheduled from December 2009 to April 2010 to offer 7-night trips from Ft. Lauderdale to St. Thomas, St. Maarten and the Bahamas. Beginning in May, the itinerary changes to Haiti, Jamaica and Mexico out of Port Everglades, one of the few large enough at the moment to allow Oasis to dock.

“It’s in the DNA of our company, about every 10 years, to take more or less a fresh sheet of paper and create the greatest cruise ship in the world,” CEO Adam Goldstein has said. He’d better hope he also reinvents American travel habits in the next 12 days as well.

Photography: Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

When Nic posted her My Bottle’s Up rant on October 16, allegedly detailing how TSA agents separated her from her child at Atlanta’s security checkpoint, the tale garnered plenty of sympathy and outrage, mainly from mothers who know what it’s like to travel alone.

Blogger Nic

The blogger’s story contained plenty of drama, from a crying toddler saying ‘No, no, no,” as he disappeared from sight to a woman blacking out from emotion in the bathroom. She claims to have called her husband and mother, begging them to help her because “they took Jackson.”

It’s a social media nightmare for anyone involved in the travel industry today, as bouncing prices, additional fees and last-minute changes have prepped the public to believe any horror story that comes down the pike. But what social media taketh, it also giveth back.

By Friday evening, the TSA got the last word at its blog, using less than a fourth of the space Ms. Nic took up for her side of the dust-up. It merely put up a video of the events showing that many of her claims were exaggerations, including the fact that no one carried off a young child. The Twitter-sphere was next in line, regugitating the blogger’s cyber comments after boarding the flight:

” dunno if i’m going blog about it… may pitch it to publications and go waaaay out with it. i dunno yet. “

” eh, i can put it on my blog, but get paid if someone picks up my story… MWUAHAHAHA…. pay me for my insanity!!!! ”

” i’m not posting sh*t. i’m writing a piece to be published much more widespread than my blog that get 6 hits ”

” full story can’t be posted on my blog…. publishers want it. “

“needless to say, today has been hell… but TSA will be ripped a new asshole thanks to freelance writing.”

Tylenol would have killed for this kind of defensive weapon during the tampering scare several decades ago.

Jason Chaffetz

But lest the TSA gets a swelled head, the surveillance video it released of Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) traipsing through security at Salt Lake City International Airport proves the politician’s assertion that he did not choose a whole-body-image scanner after voting against that measure in the U.S. House of Representatives. Nor did he throw his business card at TSA officials on the scene as some had suggested.

“It corroborates exactly what I’ve been saying,” Chaffetz told the Salt Lake Tribune. “It dispels the erroneous myth perpetuated by the union.” Not to mention the erroneous myths perpetuated by life in general.

Photography: My Bottle’s Up, Jason Chaffetz

Thanksgiving travel to decrease

When it comes to going over the river and through the woods to grandmother’s house for Thanksgiving, roughly 19 percent of last year’s travelers are rethinking that journey this November 24.

But that’s not the bad news. According to American Express’ latest Spending & Saving Tracker, more than one in 10 young professionals intend to drive instead of fly, 8 percent intend to stay fewer days for Turkey Weekend, and 7 percent of this crowd will use reward points and miles to help pay for the trip.

Comparatively, 7 percent of the general population and 6 percent of affluent demographics say they will drive, 3 percent in both categories are taking the “Hi! Bye!” schedule, and only 4 percent of affluent and 3 percent of the general population will lean on deals.

In other words, we’re training the next generation of discretionary income earners to cut back on travel. And as many businesses know, old habits die hard. 

The short-term picture isn’t that bad. For instance, 78 percent of the affluent expect to spend more or the same over the next 30 days in restaurants, while the general public says it will spend less on groceries — another positive sign folks could be throwing caution to the wind to celebrate. Pamela Codispoti, the American Express senior vice president and general manager of Cardmember Services, agrees.

“These results show that consumers do plan to open their wallets this holiday season, starting with Thanksgiving travel, but many are re-prioritizing those expenses,” she cautions.” If Halloween is any indication of things to come, 36 percent of young professionals said at the end of September they plan to purchase less expensive costumes this year, compared to 16 percent of affluent and 15 percent of the general population that admitted the same thing. In fact, 26 percent are making their own customer or using hand-me-downs — while only 13 percent of the affluent and 11 percent of the general population plan to take that route.

Who needs travel?

Sigh. More of those frugal living traditions forming that could bode ill for the travel industry’s cash flow in the fourth quarter.

So what does the airline industry do in light of this payment skittishness? Just this week, American Airlines, Delta, Northwest and USAirways announced  a $10 per ticket surcharge — each way — for flights on Nov. 29, Jan. 2 and Jan. 3. This is in addition to luggage fees that increased in 2009, and additional charges for specific seats in the coach class. “Yes, it brings in a lot of sorely needed revenue to the airlines — but to the detriment of holiday travelers, who are already paying stiff fares for those high-traffic days,” FareCompare.com’s CEO Rick Seaney told bNet.

While pricing experts will hammer home that discounting services isn’t always the right answer, even in a recession, merging an attitude of gouging with a population losing interest in the product don’t bode well for a healthy profit in this industry down the road.

Photography: CarbonNYC (Flickr), Ali Edwards (Flickr)

Future of registered travelers is unclear

Want to know whether  the idea of paying to pre-clear frequent travelers’ trips through airport security is a great business idea? Launch it, file for bankruptcy, and watch the feeding frenzy for your company. Nearly four months after CLEAR, the company Americans paid as much as $200 a year to join, went belly-up, three companies are scrambling to buy its assets (read: customer database) and take its place.

According to reporters at the Orlando Sentinel, Orlando appears to be the big prize everyone is after. MCO is not only the first airport to offer the expedited security service, it has the most registered in the database Morgan Stanley is now babysitting. Clear operated in a total of 18 airports in the United States, including DC, Los Angeles, New York and Atlanta.

All places frequent fliers would prefer to go to the front of the line.

So why the four-month wait? It turns out, buying citizen’s security information that claims they’re not terrorists is a legal quagmire. For starters, the Transportation Security Administration had washed its hands on participation in 2008 — before Clear’s bankruptcy — because officials there had determined it wasn’t a terrorist-proof system, and went back to merely doing the same background checks it does for every single airborne passenger in America. Now the U.S. House of Representatives wants TSA to change its stance and get on board. The new TSA chief Erroll Southers, a former FBI agent who has also served as the LAX police department’s assistant chief, might do just that.

Second, Clear owed a lot of its partners money, and the airports are saying they want reimbursement before they’ll dive in again.

What's next?

But even without the federal background check component, plenty of flyers would pay to skip sharing security lines along with every family headed to and from Disney World, even though the special registered traveler lanes still require you to take off your shoes, pull out the laptop, and put the liquid bottles in a baggie. In fact, Henry Inc., one of the bidders for the service, claims 90 percent of Clear’s previous customers say they’ll resign, even if they aren’t reimbursed for the funds they lost when the first company collapsed.

And that’s no doubt why the companies fighting to revive this regsitered traveler idea are assuring Americans the program will be back, even if they can’t describe how.

Photography: courtesy .schill (Flickr), hyku (Flickr)

The Old Guard is in trouble when it comes to making a living on the New York City restaurant scene. Tavern on the Green declared bankruptcy in September, not even two weeks after Café des Artistes closed its doors. The owners said after 92 years in the restaurant business, the company could no longer pay employees’ health and pension benefits. Indeed, reports say they were $250,000 behind in health insurance and $116,000 in pension payments.

And both the Rainbow Room and Rainbow Grill are dark these days, with their plans to re-open shaky at best.

Statistics at NPD Group, a consulting firm that specializes in restaurant research, show that 512 New York City restaurants  have closed so far this year. It’s only October.

Las Vegas' CityCenter

Which makes it strange that Las Vegas is counting on upscale restaurants to bail it out of the doldrums. The $8 million CityCenter opening in December certainly has attracted new players to the Vegas dining scene, including restaurant moguls from New York and Paris. It could certainly be a boost to a city where unemployment levels have reached 13.1 percent, as officials are saying it will create 12,000 permanent jobs.

On the other hand, someone has to buy those rooms and meals to keep the jobs. The Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority says tourist traffic was down by 6.8 percent  — and that was only through June. And current plans at CityCenter call for more high-end dining establishments than casual meals.

“The last thing we need is 17 more restaurants in the inventory,”  Elizabeth Blau,  a partner at restaurants Society at the Wynn, Simon at Palms Place and Cathouse at the Luxor resort, told Nation’s Restaurant News.  Here’s the current rundown on the interlopers … er, new restaurants:

ARIA Resort & Casino – December 16, 2009
ARIA has assembled many of the best and brightest chefs and restaurateurs from around the country, uniting a pair of remarkable Las Vegas newcomers with those who have played integral roles in the development of Las Vegas’ culinary scene: Masayoshi Takayama, Shawn McClain, Michael Mina, Julian Serrano, Jean-Georges Vongerichten, Sirio Maccioni, Jean-Philippe Maury and The Light Group. Each will deliver a concept totally new to their repertoire.

Vdara Hotel & Spa – December 1, 2009

Martin Heierling, the acclaimed innovator behind Bellagio’s renowned Sensi, will serve as executive chef for Vdara. Inspired by the ancient trade route spanning from Venice to the Far East, Silk Road will incorporate subtle spices and exotic ingredients to create modern trans-ethnic cuisine. Silk Road will transform as the day evolves, from fresh and lively at daybreak to chic and sexy at nightfall.

Crystals retail and entertainment district – December 3, 2009

Restaurants opening their first Las Vegas locations at Crystals include Eva Longoria Parker’s BESO and
Mastro’s Ocean Club, joining an exciting new pub concept by Todd English. Wolfgang Puck will open two innovative new restaurant concepts, including a contemporary interpretation of a traditional French brasserie with tastes of the Mediterranean region. Many more luxury brands and dining concepts will be announced at a later date.

Mandarin Oriental, Las Vegas – December 4, 2009

Situated on the 23rd floor will be the first U.S. restaurant by world-renowned, three-star Michelin Chef Pierre Gagnaire. Twist by Pierre Gagnaire will infuse the simplicity of classic French cuisine with a modern spin, relying on a pairing of flavors and textures for which Gagnaire is renowned. Guests also can enjoy small bites and high tea rituals at the Tea Lounge; fresh preparations of world-class cuisine at MOzen Bistro; and gourmet pastries, sandwiches and more at Amore Patisserie, located directly on Las Vegas Blvd.

Perhaps it’s merely a case of old habits die hard. After, the new owner of Tavern on the Green was reportedly willing to offer New York officials a huge 20 percent of his sales for a chance to see if he could make a profit from the landmark sitting on the parks and recreation district’s land.

Photography: Courtesy of CityCenter

Philip Bowman, chief executive of Smiths Group in London, has begun publicly complaining about the long security lines at European airports he frequents. In a speech in Brussels last week, he told his audience, “Sometimes I wonder whether the same energy and elan is always applied to relieving restrictions as is usually shown – for very good and understandable reasons – in imposing them.”

no liquids or gels

OK, so one of the divisions in his company designs and manufactures equipment to detect and identify explosives, weapons and contraband. And it just so happens the Department of Homeland Security is one of its major U.S. stakeholders. And he made headlines in the U.K. last year when he negotiated “first class where available” perks into his contract, a $10,000 pound car allowance and $336,000 pound pension every year in addition to his salary and bonuses.

Still, as self-serving as it may seem to advocate more countries adopt scanning technology at the airports, folks passing through Helena Regional Airport in Montana likely agree.

Late last week, it rolled out a CT-80 baggage screening machine by Reveal Imaging Technologies Inc. — equipment that can screen 225 bags per hour in an airport that typically serves just 350 passengers a day. The CT-80 works like an MRI machine does for medical purposes, scanning bags for explosives and other no-nos.

“Now, we’re light years ahead of most Montana airports,” said Philip Stuczynski, the Transportation Security Administration’s screening manager at Helena. No, Mr. Stuczynski, apparently you are ahead of the many world airports Philip Bowman frequents.

Photography: Fabio Mascarenhas (Flickr)

Last month, I sat through a training session with Walt Disney where the rep assured travel agents that the Mouse’s empire is NOT a discounter, doesn’t want to gain a reputation as a discounter, and therefore and the special price cuts we’ve seen this year would not continue in the future.

Disney magic

Approximately a week later, I received notice of slashed hotel prices at Walt Disney World this October. 

They followed this with news the cruise line would offer an Alaska itinerary in 2010, which is in line with the upscale image.

Now today, Disney has announced it will scale back the Adventures by Disney guided tour program next year, saying good-bye to Spain, Austria and the Czech Republic altogether. Apparently, selling $6,500 per person safaris eluded even the magical world of Disney these days. Here in 2009, the division offered 429trips to 17 countries. Next year, that will be reduced to 272 trips, or a 40 percent drop.

The scary part? According to the Orlando Sentinel, Disney says ventures such as Adventures By Disney is a great feeder business for the all-mighty parks dollars because it introduces the brands to consumers in new markets. Adventures’ tours require little capital investment — Disney contracts out for services during its tours, rather than building its own infrastructure — so it generates relatively high returns.

If that the case, then just what is the financial sense behind buying 2 4,000-passenger ships and hotel resorts in Washington D.C. and Hawaii? Not to mention investments in upgrading Castaway Cay and its Port Canaveral terminal.

Adventures says it will add more trips if the demand materializes. If the theme parks are any barometer, they might need to rethink that  price cut philosophy across the board to fill the capacity they have.

Photographer: Julie Sturgeon

Mariner of the Seas

Will the Tupperware model work for the travel industry?

Royal Caribbean tried this marketing strategy in late summer to see if it would float. Using House Party, a consumer activation and experiential marketing company, and teaming up with Cruise Planners/American Express, the line introduced more than 14,000 consumers to a cruising experience in 1,000 homes across the country.

Most women are very familiar with the format: You invite friends into your home to attend a fun, authentic theme party — all about Royal Caribbean cruising in this case, as opposed to food prep tools, make-up, sex toys, baskets or candles. Cruise planners were on hand to answer questions, and the hosts are tracking results at microsites. These online communities also allow hosts and attendees to upload photos and talk about their experiences, thus extending the good times (and brand strength) via social media.

I’m betting the exclusive gifts and discounts on sailings Royal Caribbean offered attendees didn’t hurt, either. Nor does the fact participants earn drawing entries for every photo they post.

“We wanted and found consumers who were willing to share their enthusiasm and love of cruising with their friends and family,” said Michelle Fee, CEO and co-founder of Cruise Planners/American Express. “The hosts and guests shared their passion for travel and learned more about all the fun and activities that Cruise Planners and Royal Caribbean International have to offer.”

Can cruises imitate Tupperware?

On the other hand, apparently no one is tracking whether this ploy could double back to bite RCCL. Home parties may work on the bottom line, but the grumbling folks do behind the hostess’ back at having to attend yet another  party and shell out money on stuff they don’t need out of pressure to help a friend is real. The pressure is getting greater: In 2006, NPD Group polled 40,000 women and  found 7% had attended a home product party within the past eight months. That compares to 3% in a survey done eight months prior.

Nor is Royal Caribbean the first with this idea by a long shot. Among the companies that have dabbled in home sales: Jockey, Aerosoles, and even AT&T. House Parties in the past has turned  your neighbors’ backyard Fourth of July barbecues, Halloween parties and New Year’s Eve celebrations into sales pitches for everything from CDs, DVDs, TV shows and video releases.

At what point will the average American balk at turning friendships into commercial opportunities for sale? Luckily for Royal Caribbean, which has not released hard numbers from its August 8 experiment, the answer is not now.

Photography: Svensonsan (Flickr) prayitno (Flickr)

Seattle: Harder to get to

What’s on the decline in travel today?

Airline capacity, which have now reached the travel industry’s deepest pull back since World War II. According to Bloomberg News‘ report, when we finish 2009, airline capacity will be 6.8 percent less than it was in December 2008. That makes the drop in passengers the year after the 9-11 attacks and 1974 oil-price shock look puny. And we probably haven’t seen the end of the disappearing seats, either.

“There’s no point putting seats in the air if people don’t want to fly,”  David Swierenga, president of aviation consulting firm AeroEcon told Bloomberg.. “A double-digit cut, more than 10 percent, in capacity is called for.” After all, our six biggest carriers saw a 4.2 percent decline in passengers in August — the 15th month in a row the numbers have been backpedaling. Can you blame him for this conclusion?

“If you have less capacity, that generally allows a bit more pricing power,”  Kevin Krone, the marketing chief for Dallas-based Southwest, also told the reporter. “It got trumped this year because the economy was so bad. Those sort of offset each other.” Southwest announced today that it would reduce flights on 92 routes between January 9 and March 12.

Wave good-by to service between Albuquerque and Portland, Manchester, N.H., and Phoenix, Kansas City and Seattle. And that’s after the budget king of the skies sent up six percent fewer flights this year than it did in 2008.

However, the situation does spawn some  good news: Fewer flights equal less congestion. The Department of Transportation revealed July was the best month in six years for on-time arrivals, when a whopping 77.6 percent of planes hit their deadlines. Hawaiian Airlines actually put up 93.6 percent performance.

But some things will always remain the same. New York City’s three airports continue to be the most congested in the country.

Photography: dherrera_96 (Flickr)

Officials in Minnesota are undecided whether they like the new word in our lexicon these days: staycation, today’s art of turning your backyard into yesterday’s vacation. It means festivals and campgrounds made out like bandits — hotels and airlines are left sucking wind.

Up in Minnesota, where tourism is an $11 billion industry and employs 248,000 people, the ends of this spectrum are really showing. In an end-of-the-summer survey by Explore Minnesota Tourism, the state’s tourism promotion office, half of more than 300 reporting accommodations noted that both occupancy and revenue were down this summer. On the other hand, one out of four reported that business was up.

“Minnesota still hosted plenty of travelers this summer, but the way they are traveling has really changed,” says John Edman, director of Explore Minnesota Tourism. That’s an understatement.

Businesses that did well in our Land of 10,000 Lakes state offered affordable rates, special deals, or packages that included activities, free breakfasts or other extras. Campgrounds did especially well, with close to half reporting an increase in revenues. Fishing, hiking, festivals, amateur sporting events and other low-cost activities were a hit,  and state parks saw an increase in visitors.

Many resorts reported that bookings for their traditional housekeeping cabins, where guests cook their own meals, remained up there this summer, and that these accommodations draw loyal, return customers who often book for the next year during their stay. The bad news: Large resorts saw a downturn in bookings by corporate groups and conferences, and occupancy and revenue were down at the majority of hotels, especially in the Twin Cities area.

Boundary Waters Canoe Area and Wilderness

Nevertheless, a little more than half — 52 percent to be exact –  of the accommodation businesses that responded to the recent Explore Minnesota Tourism survey reported “stable, but positive” financial health, Another 14 percent indicated that their financial health was “growing.” Overall, businesses expect the summer’s travel trends to continue into the fall.

Which explains why the state teamed up with neighbor Wisconsin to run radio ads inviting folks travel to both the Minnesota and Wisconsin sides of the St. Croix River and the Mississippi River to view fall colors. More than 70 stations in Minnesota will run the radio spot through September 13, and Wisconsin will return the favor next spring when a different palette of colors takes over.

The real question is do they anticipate staycations will carry over into summer 2010? One season of down sales makes headlines. Two seasons mean a sea change in how an industry does business altogether because doing well in an activity that costs less can still mean fewer dollars on the bottom line in the bigger picture.

Photography: Savannah (Flicker.com)