According to the 2010 Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF), the twenty years from 2010-2029 will see a 4.8 percent annual increase in overall world passenger traffic, with a demand for nearly 26,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at $3.2 trillion.

Airbus GMF

This demand is being driven by two very different needs – replacement of aircraft with new eco-efficient models in mature markets, and dynamic growth in new emerging markets and low-cost carriers, particularly in Asia.

Highlights from the Airbus GMF presentation (figures for the 20 year period from 2010-2029, unless mentioned otherwise):

- 24,980 new passenger aircraft (worth $2.9 trillion) and 870 new freighter aircraft deliveries, to make for a total of 1300 planes/year.

- Of the new deliveries, 10,000 will be replacements for less eco-efficient planes and 15,000 will be for growth. Speaking broadly, the airline industry in the industrialized West is about to spend $1.28 trillion (40% of the total $3.2 trillion) on a new green fleet.

- The overall world passenger fleet will rise to 29,000 aircraft by 2029 (currently 14,000).

- Freight traffic will triple in the next 20 years, with a demand for 2,980 freighters. 870 will be new aircraft worth $211 billion, while 2,110 will be converted from passenger aircraft.

- Single-aisle passenger & small jet freighters make up the bulk (17,870) of the new deliveries worth $1,274 billion. Twin-aisles account for 6,240 deliveries worth $1,340 billion, while Very large Aircraft (VLA) passenger & freighter planes account for 1,740 of the new deliveries valued at $570 billion.

John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer Customers, said that “The recovery is stronger than predicted and reinforces both the resilience of the sector to downturns and that people want and need to fly.”

The study covers 300 passenger and freight traffic flows, and fleet analysis of nearly 938 passenger airlines and 217 freighter operators.

See the full 2010 Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) – Download (pdf)